Decision Loops

Decision Loops connect strategy to data in motion. They define how Segflow turns performance changes and planning moments into clear, traceable decisions.

While the Flow Board shows how metrics and bets interact, Decision Loops describe how teams act on that information — turning observation into structured, documented action.

Why It Matters

Most teams can see when performance changes, but few have a shared method for responding. Decision Loops close that gap by giving every board a repeatable rhythm for reacting and reflecting.

• Signal Loops respond to unexpected movement in key metrics.
• Cycle Loops provide cadence for reflection and reprioritisation.

Together, they keep strategy responsive in the short term and coherent over time.

Signal Loops — Respond to Change

A Signal Loop is opened when a metric behaves differently than expected. It connects data, discussion, and action in a single thread.

How It Works

1. Open a loop on the board that owns the metric. Loops are created manually for now, triggered by human judgment.
2. Investigate the variance — review the forecast, leading indicators, and linked bets.
3. Discuss findings in the board thread and propose next steps.
4. Decide what changes: adjust a bet, update a forecast, or record “no change.”
5. Close once a decision is documented and ownership is clear.

Visibility

• Appears inside the board as an active thread.
• Also appears on the metric’s timeline as a marker labelled with the board that opened it.

Each loop represents a distinct interpretation of the same signal, preserving context across multiple boards.

Cycle Loops — Create Rhythm

A Cycle Loop structures deliberate reflection at the end of a cadence — monthly, quarterly, or custom. It consolidates performance, learnings, and priorities into one review.

How It Works

1. Prepare — Segflow gathers inputs: metric trends, open/closed signal loops, bet health, and capacity snapshots.
2. Review — Discuss what moved and why.
3. Decide — Record changes to bets, goals, or forecasts.
4. Publish — A single “Cycle Review” marker appears on each affected metric, labelled with the board name.
5. Close — Mark resolved once at least one decision (or explicit “no change”) is logged.

Typical Outcomes

• Start, pause, or retire bets
• Merge overlapping initiatives
• Reallocate attention or resources
• Update metric baselines and forecasts
• Open follow-up Signal Loops for specific metrics

Cycle Loops keep plans from drifting and make strategy adjustments visible in context.

How Loops and Boards Work Together

Boards are flexible strategy spaces — they can host both loop types at once.

• Signal Loops live close to metrics and appear as live alerts or discussions.
• Cycle Loops appear in a board’s Review section tied to its cadence.
• Metrics can belong to multiple boards; each loop marker always shows which board it came from.
• Decisions live primarily in the board thread but are also visible on the metric timeline and in the Strategy Graph.

This keeps metrics as the shared signal while letting each board interpret and act in its own context.

The Loop Flow

No automation yet — loops record decisions without auto-changing bets or goals. These decisions become training data for improving forecasts and attribution later.

Loop Visibility in Metrics

Every metric timeline shows both short-term reactions and structured reviews:

• Signal Loop markers — fast tactical responses, each tagged with its board.
• Cycle Review markers — scheduled reflections summarising broader decisions.

Together they turn metrics into narrative timelines — connecting data, discussion, and decision.

Example

Signal Loop — Oct 10

Activation Rate drops −18%. Growth board opens a Signal Loop, pauses “Onboarding Flow,” and records rationale. Marker appears on Activation Rate chart.

Cycle Loop — Oct 31

Monthly Growth Review runs automatically. Inputs include Activation trend and three signal loops from October. Team merges overlapping bets and re-baselines the Signup→Activate forecast. One “Monthly Review — Growth” marker appears on all relevant metrics.

Best Practices

• Open early: treat loops as investigations, not post-mortems.
• Be explicit: every loop should end with a recorded decision or “no change + why.”
• Tag correctly: always label loops with the board that owns them.
• Review closed loops: check if actions delivered expected results.
• Connect data + dialogue: loops work best when analytics and reasoning meet.
• Stay focused in reviews: each cycle loop should resolve 3–4 key decisions, not dozens.

Decision Quality & Learning

Loops only add value if the decisions inside them are high quality. A good loop doesn’t just close fast — it learns accurately.

Measuring Decision Quality

Use three questions to evaluate loop outcomes:

1. Was the hypothesis clear? Did the team state what they expected to happen and why?
2. Was the action traceable? Can others see what changed and what data supported that decision?
3. Was the learning captured? When looking back, is it obvious whether the decision improved the outcome or not?

Good loops aren’t the ones with “positive” results — they’re the ones that generate reliable learning for the next iteration.

Learning as a System

When loops close:

• Decisions are logged as events on metrics, bets, and goals.
• The Strategy Graph updates relationships based on those outcomes.
• Forecast and attribution models incorporate those events into retraining.

This turns Segflow into a continuously learning system — every decision teaches the models how your organisation behaves.

Summary

Decision Loops are the operational heartbeat of Segflow.

• Signal Loops keep the system adaptive.
• Cycle Loops keep it disciplined.
• Learning Loops (through decision quality) make it intelligent.

By weaving these into your boards and metrics, Segflow turns strategy into a living learning system — one that observes, decides, and evolves continuously.